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标题: 讨论：PCB有没有未来 [打印本页]

作者: stupid 时间: 2011-1-26 10:00
标题: 讨论：PCB有没有未来
本帖最后由 stupid 于 2011-1-26 14:36 编辑

PCB的发明人：Paul Eisler

My Life with the Printed Circuit is Paul Eisler's dramatic autobiography, recounting his invention and pioneering of the printed circuit in the midst of the blitz in London during World War II. The book is a behind-the-scenes report of how the invention became an important weapon against the German Luftwaffe and why it remains to this day a basic principle of modern technology in the armaments and electronics industries. This achievement and his many patents did not provide an easy run for the author's other inventions, which were sufficiently revolutionary to place him in the same league as Volta, Faraday, Bell, Edison, and Marconi. In a fascinating account that will interest laymen and professionals alike, Eisler examines the patent system from the perspective of the inventor and retraces his experience in guiding his creative ideas through to commercial products.

The story opens in Vienna in the 1930s. On the strength of two of his patent applications, Eisler obtained invitations from two leading electrical firms to visit England and thus, in 1936, escaped from the imminent Nazi threat. As an alien, however, he was not permitted to work. When he offered his printed circuit invention to Plessey, it was rejected, and Eisler was forced for a time to put his ambitions aside.

It was not until after the war broke out that he revived his idea of the printed circuit, encouraged by Churchill's appeal for sophisticated electronic armament to combat the Luftwaffe. Believing that his invention could provide that vital contribution, Eisler renewed his desperate search for support. At length he succeeded in interesting H. V. Strong, the proprietor of an old, established firm of music printers, but he was required to sign an agreement that conferred title of all related future patents to Strong.

Eisler then set about installing his simple laboratory in a partially blitzed building. With the aid of Gustav Parker, an old friend from Vienna, he constructed the first radio set incorporating printed circuits. He demonstrated that set to the Allied Missions and received a highly enthusiastic response. An end result was the American use of printed circuits in producing proximity fuses, and these were supplied to the anti-aircraft batteries for the defense of London and of the Antwerp bridgehead.

The account continues with Eisler's postwar career. Despite a disastrous experience with the National Research and Development Corporation (NRDC), which virtually gave away the U.S. patents for Eisler's inventions, he made tremendous strides as an inventor. He developed means of producing copper foil electrolytically and of bonding it to a laminate. His subsequent inventions included the foil battery and the foil heating film for electric surface heating. Detailing various applications of the heating foil, Eisler describes his negotiations with a succession of large British and American companies. The author concludes by summing up, in the light of his experience, his views on the patent system.

1950年，6月21日，Paul Eisler的PCB专利发表了。如果你了解他的背景，你肯定会提出疑问，“PCB之父”是如何生存下来的，说坚持可能不合适。

Eisler的人生故事（像他自传中描述的那样，我的生活与印制电路）像一部神秘的小说，满是遭受迫害的题材（犹太工程师逃离1930年代的奥地利），低效率的政府机构（全部政府机构），还有一直非常流行的“非法移民只是想要一个诚实的工作”等等。

Eisler1907年出生，1930年毕业于维也纳大学工程学士学位。他在那时就已经显现出发明家的天赋。但是，他的首要目标是在一个非纳粹土地上找份工作。所有好的工程工作都在1930年代的奥地利。

因此，1934年，他在贝尔格莱德找到了一份为火车设计电子系统的工作——能够使乘客通过耳机记录个人记录，像iPod。但是，工作结束时，客户提供的是粮食，而不是支付货币。

我想在谈判中从未谈及过“用粮食支付”。

回到奥地利，Eisler为报纸投稿，创办了电台杂志，并开始学习印刷技术。印刷在1930年代是相当强大的技术，他开始想象如何让印刷技术运用到在绝缘基底的电路上，并且投入大货生产。

1936年，他决定离开奥地利。他受邀前往英国工作，基于两项他已经提出的专利：一个是图形印象记录，另一个是具有垂直分辨率线的立体电视。

他的电视专利卖了250法郎，这足够在汉普斯特德公寓住上一段时间，这是一件好事，因为他在伦敦找不到工作。有一家电话公司真的很喜欢他的印制电路板的想法——它可以淘汰那些电话系统中使用的成捆的电线。但经理告诉他，人工接线工作是由“女孩”来做的，“女孩”更便宜，而且更灵活。好吧。

至少我们省去了考虑廉价劳动力所做的工作可以由一个恰当的工具用一半的时间来完成。

由于二战的爆发，Eisler开始想办法让家人离开奥地利。战争开始时，他的妹妹自杀了，他作为一个非法移民被英国拘留了。即使被关了起来，Eisler仍然在想着怎样帮助战争。

被释放后，Eisler为音乐印制公司Henderson & Spalding工作。最初，他的目标是完善公司的绘图音乐打字机，不是在实验室里，而是在一个被炸毁的建筑中工作。公司老板H.V. Strong强迫Eisler签署了所有在研究中出现的专利。这不是第一次，也不是最后一次Eisler被人利用。

从事军事工作的麻烦之一是他的身份：他刚刚被释放。你可以想像Eisler找军事承包商，讨论他的印制电路如何使用到战争中去。

通过他在Henderson & Spalding的工作，Eisler开发了利用蚀刻箔在基板上记录下痕迹的概念。他的第一块电路板看上去更像一盘意大利细面条。他在1943年申请了专利。

起初没有人真正重视这项发明，直到它被运用到炮弹的引信用来击落V-1 buzz炸弹。在此之后，Eisler有了工作，还有了些小名气。战争结束后，这项技术得到了传播。美国在1948年规定，所有机载仪器必须是印制的。

Eisler1943年的这项专利最终被分为三个独立的专利：639111（三维印制电路板），639178（印制电路的箔技术），和639179（粉末印刷）。这三项专利在1950年6月21日发表，但是只有少数几家公司获得专利授权。

1950年代，Eisler又一次被利用了，这次是在英国国家研究与发展公司工作期间。该组织基本上是泄露了Eisler的美国专利。但是他继续实验和发明。他又想出了电池箔，加热墙纸，比萨饼烤箱，混凝土模具，后车窗除霜等等的主意。他在医学领域取得了成功，于1992年去世，一生具有几十个专利。他刚刚获得了电气工程师协会的纳菲尔德银质奖章。

谁将会成为下一个Eisler，或下一个Shockley或Kilby？他们就在那里，也许就在你隔壁的房间里。

Paul Eisler (1907-1992) was an Austrian inventor born in Vienna. Among his innovations were the printed circuit board.

Early life and education

He graduated in engineering from Vienna University of Technology in 1930[1]:15. After employment inBelgrade where he installed radios in trains, he returned to Vienna to work as a printer. However, he was forced out of work by the fascists in 1934 and left for England with some of his patents in 1936. His first cousin, Philipp Fehl, contacted Eisler upon arrival as a refugee in England and Eisler helped to make sure that Fehl's father left Vienna alive after his release from the Dachau concentration camp.

[edit]Inventions

Living in a Hampstead boarding house, without work or a work permit, he began to fabricate a radio using aprinted circuit board while trying to sell some of his ideas. Around this time, the Odeon hired him to work on their cinema technology. One of the common problems there was coping with theatre goers who spilled foods such as ice cream on the seats. Eisler devised a yellow fabric to cover affected furniture for the benefit of the next theater goer as well as flag it for removal and cleaning at the next opportunity.

Though he was able to help several members of his family escape Austria, he was subject to internment by the British as an enemy alien after the onset of World War II. After being released in 1941, he was able to engage Henderson and Spalding, a lithography company in Camberwell run by Harold Vezey-Strong, to invest in his printed circuit idea via a specially created subsidiary of Henderson and Spalding called Technograph, but forfeited rights to his invention when he neglected to read the contract before signing it. It was a pretty standard employment contract in that he agreed to submit any patent right during his employment for a nominal fee (one pound sterling) but it also gave him 16.5 percent ownership of Technograph. It drew no interest until the United States incorporated the technology into work on the proximity fuze which was vital to counter the German V-1 flying bomb. However, he did manage to obtain his first three printed circuit patent for a wide range of applications. They were split out from a single application submitted in 1943 and finally published after long legal procedures on June 21, 1950 [2][3][4].

After the war ended, the United States opened access to his printed circuit innovation and since 1948, it has been used in all airborne instrument electronics. Very few companies acknowledged or licenced Technograph's patents and the company had financial difficulties. He resigned from Technograph in 1957. Among his projects as a freelancer, were films to heat "floor and wall coverings"[5] and food, for example, "fishfingers"[5]. The wallpaper idea was viable, but interest waned after the advent of cheaper energy resources with the discovery of natural gas in the North Sea.Eisler invented many other practical applications of heating technology, such as the pizza warmer and rear window defroster, but was not so successful in their commercialization.

In 1963, Technograph lost a lawsuit against Bendix over most of the claims in the US versions of patents.

作者: stupid 时间: 2011-1-26 14:20
标题: 观点1：未来
本帖最后由 stupid 于 2011-1-26 14:24 编辑

The Bleeding Edge：PCB的未来

Written By: Robert Tarzwell
12/14/2010
Categorized in: 其它特邀作家
8 Q5 X/ g8 B/ d6 f- b% _& ^

随着最近对于Ray Rasmussen关于PCB未来的一篇专栏的回复和反答，我决定拿出我满是灰尘的水晶球，占卜一下未来——并看看过去。

首先，所有最近的评论，在某种程度上，都很准确。

正如Doug Brooks在他的专栏中声称的，每块PCB上功能的数量没有每个盒子中PCB的数量那么重要。但是Ray Rasmussen 专栏的原文中指出，PCB现在处于被印制电子产品完整硅电路取代的危险。

我凝视着水晶球（这一个可以回顾过去），我看到了马车，以及制造马车鞭子的上百家工厂。一阵烟雾过后，一辆一缸汽车在以每小时5英里速度行驶，马车鞭制造公司说：“汽车将永远不会发展起来。它的气味太大了。”

当烟雾散去，我只看到一家马车鞭制造工厂和成百上千家汽车零部件制造商。

现在我看到了硅芯被连接到显示器上。我看到有人在显示器上打字。我没有看到PCB。也许这该死的东西又被打破了。

在遥远的未来，我看到一台电脑由一个单一的芯片制成，没有其它部件，没有PCB。它是由思维控制的，安置在你的头边上。变得越来越古怪了，即使是对于Bleeding Edge来说。

但是我看到未来是建立在这样一个事实上的：硅芯片业务一直在以摩尔定律的速度前进，而我们在PCB业务——很大程度上——在中间卡住了。

芯片的巨大进步最初将导致更多需要PCB的产品，但是总有一天我们会看到PCB消亡的一天，正如我们知道的那样。只要想想10年前，那时几乎所有电子设备都需要PCB这类的东西，无论是传统的FR-4，柔性，隔板或HDI。

今天，曾经使用PCB，但现在不需要PCB了的产品可以列满好几页。

这份清单包括像新的基于MEMS技术和通孔硅封装包括能量收集的轮胎压力传感器。用于LED头部转向或头灯的新型汽车LED灯开关，具有硅基芯片包装，没有PCB陶瓷散热片。

即使是印制电子产品用直接芯片取代也不安全。一个新的RFID芯片是全功能的，将取代典型的银印制RFID标签。

我参加了一项R＆D工作以确定PCB是否可以从笔记本中淘汰。我们发现，作出相应的设计把印制电路板移走并不是很难。通过使用“天使技术”，其中大部分的计算功能是在互联网上完成的，我们淘汰了其中大部分部件。由于去除了部件后笔记本变得更简单了，我们预见到可以把所有的芯片、元件甚至是电源开关全都放在一个大的堆叠硅基晶片上。再次，不需要PCB，因为我们没有什么需要互连的。

PCB的死亡不会突然发生，但是会在边缘挣扎一会儿。印制电子产品将在其进化历程中移除一些PCB。MEMS技术咬断另一小部分，正如MCM技术将直接作用于触摸屏设备一样。

要从PCB生产中拿走的最大的一块是来自超级多合一单芯片的成长——类固醇MCM芯片。封装好的芯片将采用所有组件，计算功率和所需内存，不要求一块PCB与设备接口。

手机在不久的将来，例如今后的8-10年，将会有现在三倍的功能，并且不需要PCB。所有这一切并不意味着在PCB行业的消亡，但业务将发生变化。

将仍然还有一些公司需要PCB，但是很多公司就都不需要花费上百万美元去设计和开发超级MCM了。那些公司将保持传统PCB，但可以预期到PCB的尺寸和线宽度将持续缩小。有人想买马车鞭吗？我知道新的马车鞭都用LED，并有光线催促马匹前进。这些LED都采用能源收集并由电脑控制。这样应该能增加马车鞭的销售了吧！

Robert Tarzwell是DMR公司的CEO和创始人。您可以通过发送邮件到rtarzwell@megadawn.com和他取得联系。

作者: sjh835170 时间: 2011-1-26 15:48
沙发吗？混论坛这么久，头一回啊……

作者: lonely 时间: 2011-1-26 21:31
支持PCB，干一行爱一行，感觉做PCB还是挺有意思的

作者: 齐静 时间: 2011-1-27 10:30
牛人！～

作者: wen06990234 时间: 2011-1-27 11:01

.....虽然我现在还提不出很好的观点，但是我不赞成这个观点....

作者: blasonliu 时间: 2011-1-27 13:38
还是看个人人发展方向吧，PCB不能说i没前途，只待人去发掘

作者: stupid 时间: 2011-1-27 16:49
观点2：PCB具有强大的生命力。

本文是对Ray Rasmussen的文章“IPC执行首脑会议：一望无际。”的回应。我抱着恭敬的态度不同意该文章下的结论，因为我相信该文章用错了尺度。让我来解释一下。
我的电子行业的生涯从PCB起步的年代就开始了。那可以追溯到你可以用X-Acto刀片来逐字设计PCB，然后在厨房水槽中做化学反应。
从那时起，我们就一直预测由于IC的密度不断增加而导致PCB的消亡。它始于1960年代初的MSI（中等规模集成）。然后，60年代末的LSI（大规模集成）。然后，超大规模集成电路，然后是微处理器，然后是超大规模集成电路，然后是MCMS，然后是系统芯片等
每一次对印制电路板的最终预测都没有成真，我相信不会成真了。在我看来，PCB不会在未来被废弃的原因正如过去他们没有被废弃的一样。
想这样的预测的问题是他们的尺度错了。Ray和他的参考是基于每块PCB的功能。诚然，每块PCB功能的数量已成指数级上升。我们可以在一个越来越小的领域获得更多的电路和功能。不过，我谨建正确度量方法不是按照每块PCB上的功能，而是每盒PCB的数量。这样的度量才更为乐观。
让我来列举一些例证。三十年前，我为家里添置了一台不错的、最先进的电视机。它大约有六块PCB。今天，我妻子的AIO电脑至少有六块PCB——它还有一个电视接收器，一个高档的更好的显示器，全尺寸电脑，摄像机等等。它的显示器、主板、无线模块、硬盘驱动器、光盘驱动器、鼠标和键盘中都有一块PCB。
靠近电视有至少两个PCB，一块用于显示器，另一块用于主板。但是，这是挨着音频接收机、DVD播放机、有线电视机顶盒、家庭娱乐计算机的，它们合起来只是有10块PCB。再增加几台电视机、电脑、宽带调制解调器、调制解调器的VOIP、无线路由器、无绳电话——我今天拥有的盒子比30年前多得多。
我们将来还会有更多。
看看你的房子和数数PCB：在你的洗衣机、干衣机、冰箱、烤箱、洗碗机、搅拌机、厨房定时器、电话系统、调制解调器、路由器、电脑、电视机、DVD、音乐播放器、闹钟、调光器、光传感器、荧光灯和LED灯泡灌溉计时器和定时器控制外照明，汽车智能钥匙（更不用提有多少PCB在你的汽车里了），车库门开启接收器，车库门发射器，煤气和电表（如果他们现在不含有PCB，那么他们会有的）。
是的，每块PCB上的函数的数目急剧增加，这是事实，但每盒PCB的数量也在增加，而且数量是惊人的！
为PCB（再次）敲响丧钟为之过早。PCB具有强大的生命力。

Douglas Brooks是UltraCAD Design的总裁。

作者: stupid 时间: 2011-1-27 16:59
本帖最后由 stupid 于 2011-1-27 17:03 编辑

IPC Executive Summit: The End in Sight

Monday, November 15, 2010 | Ray Rasmussen, I-Connect007

Editor's Note: This article was originally published in the November issue of SMT Magazine.
After spending so many years covering this industry, it takes a lot to surprise me. But I was taken aback--and not in a good way--by a presentation at the IPC Executive Summit last month.
I was actually a bit depressed for a couple days, really, as I struggled with the idea that the end might be in sight for the PCB industry.
The implications of this presentation are pretty staggering. I guess I knew it was coming, but I just wasn't ready to hear it. Not now.

The World as We Know It

It seems that every five years or so, a new technology emerges with the potential to eliminate the PCB. Of course, none has actually been able to completely supplant the circuit board, but some have substantially reduced the need for PCBs in specific products--allowing product designers to do more in less space. Smarter silicon and creative packaging strategies have done wonders for the products we buy, but have taken their toll on the PCB.
This revolution in new capabilities and in PCB density has also opened the door to new markets for electronic products. A case in point is the billions of cell phones being produced and sold each year. It's because of the dramatic reduction in cost that the market has grown from a few million to billions sold over the last decade. On the one hand, the PCB requirement per product is being reduced, but on the other, lower costs are causing the market to expand, thereby creating greater demand for PCBs.
And, since the PCB industry continues to grow year-over-year, logic seems to suggest that an expanding market is better for the industry. A growing market more than offsets the shrinking size of the PCB. Right?

Is the End Really in Sight?

The presentation that got my attention was given by Phil Plonski of Prismark Partners. His paper was titled Core Enabling Process Technologies Driving Electronics Innovation. Plonski talked at length about one product: The Apple iPad. The cross-section of the assembled board was very telling. You could see the stacked chips with the PCBs sandwiched in-between.

The good news is that Apple is using millions of PCBs to get the iPad to market and meet demand, albeit smaller and fewer boards than we'd like. The bad news is, to continue to add features and functions, Apple will need to add more silicon and fewer PCBs. It won't be long before they learn how to build the iPad and iPhone without a PCB altogether. That's what the consumer wants: More functionality and reliability at a lower price.

In the case of the iPhone, the bad news is that its capabilities replace the PDA, cell phone, some cameras (still and video), voice recorders, GPS and more. What used to be five different electronic products is now one. What used to require 10 to 20 PCBs and assemblies, in all sizes and shapes, now just needs a couple. The iPad replaces a laptop, a PDA, a television, stereo and more.
It would seem that the PCB is becoming less and less of a critical component and more of a necessary evil (for now) as opposed to a "partner" in the electronic package. We in the industry would like to think we're more important, but it seems that we aren't. Scary.
For the West, the good news is that we don't build a lot of hand-held consumer electronics. The bad news is that smart phones are driving electronics packaging technologies and these new capabilities will find their way into more and more products each year.

Don't Buy Apple! Yeah, That's the TicketApple will want a lighter, more reliable and more capable iPhone 5 (and 6 and 7 and...) and iPad 2. They will never be able to stop adding more features and functions. The PCB's future in this market segment seems to be doomed. There will be a flex circuit connector and an ever-smaller rigid PCB, but for all intents and purposes, the PCB will likely disappear from handheld devices. And since the smart phones are driving the technology, the rest of the industry will eventually follow.

Of course, Apple isn't the cause of the demise of the PCB in some mobile electronic devices. It really is us: Those of us who love our iPhones. We're the ones potentially putting the PCB industry out of business. The iPhone represents where things are headed. The good news is that not all electronics need the sophistication of the iPhone; for most electronic products, the innovations in today's iPhone aren't required. But in time, iPhone innovations will become standard fair. It will take time, decades or at least a decade. We'll see.On October 29, 2010 Apple moved into the #4 spot in worldwide phone sales.

Plonski also showed a photo of a Cray supercomputer that is slightly larger than the desktop computer you'd find your kid using. To get that much power in a package that size I'm sure there are all kinds of innovations to reduce size, increase speed and more. Inside you'll find smaller, denser boards with stacked chips and all kinds of other exotic structures. Maybe Plonski can save up some money and cross-section those electronics for the next meeting.

There is a bright spot, though: New markets are developing.

Light Emitting Diodes

1 C$ k& ~9 S z$ w$ wLED lighting is a great example of a new market that will likely require billions of circuit boards over the next decade. At the Executive Summit we heard a presentation on Opportunities in the Value Chain for the Next Wave of High-Brightness Light-Emitting Diodes (HBLED) by Leonard Livschitz, CEO of Luxera Inc.

This is a brand-new market for our industry. Except for some specialized applications, LEDs will primarily replace incandescent bulbs which have never used a PCB. LEDs for commercial and residential use are about to take off.

Today's $40 price for a 60-watt LED replacement bulb for residential use will explode when the retail price reaches between $5 and $8 a bulb. The three-inch diameter PCB in the current $40 bulb will need to be reduced to around one square inch to support a light which costs less that $10. On the one hand, we lose size, but on the other the volume explodes. Do the math: One million nine square-inch boards versus billions of one inch boards. And I'm sure that some time in the future the LED will be all silicon, but they need the PCB as a platform to hold and connect the LEDs, so we're good for now.

I can already anticipate the letters to the editor. Fabricators and assemblers who have always made their living building and assembling PCBs will be really upset that I even suggest such a thing. But, if they just take a few minutes and map out their own technological progress over the last decade, they'll see that they were building a much larger PCB per function 10 years ago than they are today. The silicon is doing more and more, reducing the need for additional PCBs in products. Now, follow the trend line out another 10 years. Draw your own conclusions.
Question: As we drive up the efficiency and capabilities of electronic products, how many more markets will develop? Are there more iPhone and LED markets out there? We know there are; we just haven't discovered them yet. What does that mean for our industries? I don't know. It will be interesting finding out, though.

By the way, there was a lot more going on at the IPC Executive Summit, including great talks on markets and technologies. I didn't intend this article to be a review of the entire event, so please check out this link to see what you missed. The IPC Executive Summits are always worthwhile and I encourage you to attend the next event.

In the meantime, consider what it means if Phil Plonski is right. Is it our destiny to continue pushing the limits of technology to the point where the PCB eventually becomes obsolete, or the market shrinks to that of a boutique application?

And if so, will you be ready? Ray Rasmussen

作者: stupid 时间: 2011-1-27 17:11
观点3：PCB从来没有像现在这样重要过

The Printed Circuit Board: More Important Now Than Ever
Friday, November 26, 2010 | Dr. Ron Lasky, Senior Technologist, Indium Corporation

My interest was piqued by a recent article from the pen of good friend, Ray Rasmussen. In his column, Ray reviews a presentation by Phil Plonski of Prismark Partners on a tear down analysis of an Apple iPad. Ray comments on the profoundly dense interconnection, with package-on-package (PoP), flip-chip, etc. The result is a product with super-dense IC packing with a minimum of printed circuit boards (PCBs) needed. The micrograph, from Prismark, shows this impressive packaging design.

Ray goes on to lament that these types of designs require fewer and fewer PCBs. He then states: "It won't be long before they learn how to build the iPad and iPhone without a PCB altogether."

Whoa, slow down! Let's think this statement through.

The PCB provides at least two fundamental functions:

1. It provides mechanical support for the electronic components.

2. It interconnects the components to each other and provides input/output connections so that the electronics can interact with the user.

(PCB experts will point out that there are many other functions such as heat transfer, electrical impedance matching, electromagnetic shielding and a few other things the PCB provides in addition to those mentioned above. Many product designs require all of these functions of the PCB, however, even the most basic designs require 1 and 2.)

It is an imperative in any electrical design to minimize the number of components, PCBs, connectors, etc. to minimize cost and increase performance. However, the minimization of PCBs often results in those used becoming more complex and hence having more "value added."

In looking at the micrograph cross-section, one could strongly argue that the PCB has never been so important or so strongly a "partner" in the design. The multi-level, fine feature, high-density interconnection provided by this PCB is truly a miracle of modern PCB manufacturing. Any other "PCB-less" design would require these functions and would essentially, by any other name, be a PCB. As an example, let's say all of these functions were performed by the case of the electronic device. To manufacture this new PCB-less device, the processes that are used to make a PCB would be needed to form these functions in the product's case. In addition, solder paste printing, component placement and reflow soldering of the case would likely be a challenge!

So expect the PCB to be alive and well for some time to come...and never more needed.

粉丝补充：

Nakahara: End Not in Sight for PCBs

Friday, November 26, 2010 | Dr. Hayao Nakahara, N.T. Information Ltd

I completely agree with the view stated by Ron Lasky in his article The Printed Circuit Board: More Important Now Than Ever.

I don't know what Phil Plonski presented, but I can guess from Ray's original column, IPC Executive Summit: The End in Sight. Phil, my dear friend, showed me a photo of an iPad, which has a microvia design of 1+8+1 or 10L, which will be designed to 3+4+3 for the second generation iPad.

A PCB maker has recently bought 40 laser drilling machines to supply microvia boards for the iPad in 2011.

My first IPC meeting was in the fall of 1966 in Chicago. IPC "tentatively" concluded that PCB production in the mid-1960s was about $500 million worldwide, of which 60 to 70% were made in the United States.

The most important thing I remember is that many functions were being integrated into a single chip (SMT was already available at that time for military IC packages), and therefore, the volume of PCBs would continue to go down and there would be no need for PCBs in the future.

Here we are 45 years later. Worldwide PCB production will reach $52 billion this year and the production will continue to grow in the next 10 years. Yes, it is true that the surface area of PCBs for many applications tends to be smaller with functional integration. But there are more applications being born and many more cell phones, PCs, flat TVs, digital cameras, set-top boxes, etc., are being produced.

Yes, we see the ups and downs of the market, but when one sees the market in the long term, the manufacture of electronic products is on a continuous rise and so more PCBs are needed. I can tell you right at this moment, there are more than 20 new PCB plants under construction in China, and not the size we are talking about in the United States. Many of them have a monthly production capacity of more than 1 million square feet "initially."

Many in the western world complain that China builds too much capacity. Then, what can they do? Kill those who are building more capacity? The world seems to be able to absorb these circuit boards.

The need for PCBs will remain at least during my lifetime and the total PCB area will continue to increase.

Hayao Nakahara

作者: menghunabc 时间: 2011-2-7 15:00

作者: szbluefly 时间: 2011-2-15 16:28
百家争鸣的意见，任何事物最终都会消亡，关键是在没有消亡的时候，去把握

作者: 青虫 时间: 2011-2-17 23:07
看完全篇不得不让人担忧
正方观点的确很强势
而反方的理由不给力

作者: zhangsenzhixing 时间: 2011-2-22 17:29
PCB的未来说真的我一直认为PCB会是一辈子的事但是科技在发展速度太快了真不好说有一天大家都要失业看完文章起码有人已经预见了未来也许不是很准确但是担忧还是对的值得深思且应该引起重视！！如果那一天会到来（当然不会那么快），但是可以想下相关行业怎样“转型”才可以“不死”

作者: cl3532 时间: 2011-2-26 09:51
不至于那么快吧

作者: victor8416 时间: 2011-3-2 09:14
前途和钱途在哪？

作者: yueyongbo 时间: 2011-3-3 14:58
PCB在历史上只能昙花一现，只不过我们都处在开花期

作者: gchao129 时间: 2011-3-3 21:50
有方向就有未来

作者: jinbaobao9897 时间: 2011-3-6 02:28

还好还好

作者: csj168 时间: 2011-3-7 21:26
起码现在还能用的着

作者: wustsb 时间: 2011-3-7 21:40
物竟天择，适者生存！

作者: suxiaoli2000 时间: 2011-3-9 11:48
努力做好当前的事就好了

作者: promissingwh 时间: 2011-3-11 14:02
我才刚刚入行不到一年，就看到这贴。也许是该多为自己考虑考虑后路
不过，我想在5年内，还能有饭吃。。

作者: chinapotency 时间: 2011-3-16 16:56
只要有电子产品需求就一定需要PCB

作者: 986405 时间: 2011-3-17 09:16
在这个年代有PCB，也许等取消PCB的年代，又有别的东西取代PCB，而取代PCB的东西还是需要一些人去做的。这些新出来的东西还是需要很多人来完成的。社会在进步，人也要进步。就是说，如果将来PCB不被取代，如果我们进步速度缓慢，还是会被新崛起的人才代替掉，我们还是没饭吃。
所以个人将来有没有饭吃，跟PCB是否被取代掉没是什么关系，跟自己的进步是否被先进的社会淘汰有很大关系。

作者: f3114824 时间: 2011-3-18 09:14
唉。。。。。。。。

作者: blurami 时间: 2011-3-22 19:55
永远都有PCB。SOC的方案成本高，周期长，功耗，布局等都不允许的。

作者: smartone007 时间: 2011-3-25 12:01
还是得做多手准备。。。

作者: shenzhou8hao1 时间: 2011-3-26 22:59
正方的观点是趋势，但是所需要的时间是漫长的，在我们有生的年代，我相信还达不到，不必担心，PCB的技术也在提升，包括软件和硬件，我们能跟的上九已经很吃力了，做好现在才是最重要的

作者: 苏鲁锭 时间: 2011-3-27 10:50
这个不用担心，电灯出来，做蜡烛的人就都饿死了么？
就算电灯和蜡烛发光原理不同，但使用光的方法还是相通的（照度什么的），只要做蜡烛的人懂这些，他就可以跳到电灯公司去。技术的更替需要新旧技术都了解的人。

作者: freshforce 时间: 2011-3-30 22:07
努力，做好准备，电子设计，数模电路。

作者: wuhongyuan2007 时间: 2011-3-31 10:00
不能只做PCB吧！

作者: fushuping 时间: 2011-3-31 21:30
刚从事PCB行业不久期待好的未来我也会努力

作者: lenhung 时间: 2011-4-1 11:18

作者: nielinclub 时间: 2011-4-2 10:41
不会吧我才学就面临失业了

作者: rubbishman 时间: 2011-4-2 17:07
篇幅老长了，mark先，以后再考虑细看

作者: 徽之兴 时间: 2011-4-4 10:52
理论上任何事物应该都有存在的生命周期，PCB会有消亡的一天，关键是这个时间有多长。相信不会一刀切式的转变吧。肯定得有个过程。PCB的本质是铜介质的互连，即使这样的互连技术落伍了，那还得有别的互连吧？单芯片的解决方案真的不需要互连吗？至少芯片内部还是有的。本质并没有改变。与其说PCB如何，不如说互连技术的发展前景如何。。。

作者: a3136011 时间: 2011-4-6 02:01
顶一下不错.............

作者: JESTER 时间: 2011-4-7 10:22

作者: doya 时间: 2011-4-7 10:48
昨天忽闻某位高人语重心长的告诉我：改行吧，不要搞什么PCB了，Cu早晚会消亡，可能早就用耦合发射器取代了，这是趋势。现在都流行纳米光电子，20年后微米将全部过渡到纳米，届时，微电子已经不复存在，传输线这个概念也一去不返了。。。。。
这是危言耸听吗？似乎已经开始慢慢的变化了。材料工艺和制造工艺的进步，必将引发新的PCB革命，也许我们真的要准备一下了。

作者: stupid 时间: 2011-4-7 11:48
本帖最后由 stupid 于 2011-4-7 11:59 编辑

doya 发表于 2011-4-7 10:48 $ C u7 O# I% `! K/ S, b H1 k
昨天忽闻某位高人语重心长的告诉我：改行吧，不要搞什么PCB了，Cu早晚会消亡，可能早就用耦合发射器取代了， ...

在互联上我们的确比硅谷落后不少，几乎每一代互联技术的试验，标准的确定都是从硅谷开始的。从我参加今年DesignCon的情况来看，我们在28Gbps上还是落后啦，人家连接器和SerDes都已经具备啦。可我们到现在都还拿不到SerDes，只能玩无源链路的设计。而别人对铜箔粗糙度和波纤效应的研究不下10年，而对我们国内的很多公司来讲，仍然是新鲜概念。
PCB至少不会很快消亡，但尺寸的急遽减少这是一个不争的事实，取而代之的是MCM这类高度集成的半导体技术，但是目前的这些趋势还主要集中在消费电子，尤其是像手机这类东西上，在需要高功率，高密度的场合，诸如通信，PCB还是无可替代。

分享一篇Bogatin在2000年写的，SOC革命以后PCB会在哪里？Where will PCBs be after the SOC Revolution？是时Bogatin还在Gigatest Labs。

GTL10.pdf (27.65 KB, 下载次数: 53)

另外，IBM研究了7、8年的optical PCB也是一个值得注意的趋势，可惜，据我所知还没有一家国内厂商玩这个。

作者: pcb168 时间: 2011-4-7 15:18
肯定有了

作者: lld 时间: 2011-4-7 16:07
选择画PCB的原因，决定自己在PCB的未来

作者: zhkaxi1369 时间: 2011-4-7 18:42
我的未来不是梦！我相信PCB

作者: freshforce 时间: 2011-4-7 20:02
pcb做高端的，普通的都集成了

作者: xk_1980 时间: 2011-4-8 20:29
pcb做到专业挺好

作者: long235235 时间: 2011-4-9 22:59

作者: cs9874123 时间: 2011-4-10 11:13
不会这么快销往吧

作者: cs9874123 时间: 2011-4-10 11:14
以前是无纸化，现在搞个无PCB

作者: 徽之兴 时间: 2011-4-12 17:38
回复 stupid 的帖子

学习了

作者: woshihong1 时间: 2011-4-15 17:11
正在学习中啊...打击

作者: xiechangqing 时间: 2011-4-18 09:22
支持PCB，干一行爱一行

作者: chenjnh 时间: 2011-4-19 16:42
生生不息的背面是每时每刻的死亡

作者: rollow 时间: 2011-4-21 10:17
我想一定是越来越高端。对PCB的要求越来越高。以前没有candence,mentor的时候，照样有人画PCB。有了这些工具，起初大家也觉得PCB不重要了，毕竟有自动布线。但是，事实证明还是需要。任何发展都离不开人。我想，只有自己不断进步才不会被淘汰。各行各业都是如此

作者: lmila 时间: 2011-4-26 14:09
这辈子只能做这个了. 我的儿子不会做这个的.
没办法, 现在改行太晚了.

作者: stupid 时间: 2011-7-11 15:26
偶尔有人问我，我们是否需要继续举办这样的研讨会和写这些书。随着越来越多的电子器件被封装到芯片中，设计电路板的问题最终是否会消失？越来越高的电路集成度是否会使PCB变得过时？　　这是个很好的问题。在研究集成电路时我第一次听到它。当研究微处理器时我也听到了它。每次在系统级的集成有突破时，我们就会听到它。我的答案很简单，印制电路板的重要性在未来不会消失，就像它的重要性在过去并没有消失一样。总会需要在某种物质的表面把器件相互连接起来。—— Douglas Brooks

作者: july2424898 时间: 2011-8-3 11:32
应该会缩水吧，而且缩的很缓慢···

作者: 陈豪俊 时间: 2011-9-30 16:22
学习一下历史知识！！

作者: passion2011 时间: 2011-12-3 12:48
呵呵
我看好这一行业

作者: lemon667 时间: 2011-12-12 16:20
日新月异，拭目以待

作者: 徽之兴 时间: 2012-7-5 23:44

stupid 发表于 2011-7-11 15:26 , j$ E' U7 F |+ Y
偶尔有人问我，我们是否需要继续举办这样的研讨会和写这些书。随着越来越多的电子器件被封装到芯片中，设计 ...

这和我之前的意见比较一致，互连必不可少

作者: dqd7411 时间: 2012-7-9 09:58
在中国，PCB的市场和需求是巨大的。起码十年内，绝对是不成问题的

作者: songwinlong 时间: 2012-7-10 10:40
不会那么容易就挂掉的。。。

作者: chouqiu 时间: 2012-9-7 13:42
不用担心最起码我这一代还是可以混过去的

作者: chenlinfeng88 时间: 2012-9-8 07:50
芯片的巨大进步最初将导致更多需要PCB的产品，但是总有一天我们会看到PCB消亡的一天，正如我们知道的那样。只要想想10年前，那时几乎所有电子设备都需要PCB这类的东西，无论是传统的FR-4，柔性，隔板或HDI。

作者: 无所畏 时间: 2012-11-21 23:08
虽然我还没跨入PCB行业，但是我相信任何事情都会有消亡的一天，难道就因为有人预言PCB在未来几年会消亡，你就不学习PCB了吗？如果这样说的，大家都知道每个人在六七十年后挂掉，难道从现在开始就什么都不做，坐等死亡来临吗？？值得思考~~~~

作者: lmx 时间: 2012-11-26 23:08
本帖最后由 lmx 于 2012-11-26 23:11 编辑

手机出现后，call机挂了，VCD出现后，录像带挂了，DVD出现后，VCD又挂了，数码相机出现后、传统的菲林相机挂了。平板出现后，电子枪挂了，虽然不能说现在完全没有人用CALL机、录像带、VCD、菲林相机和电子枪，但起码他们已经不是主角了，卖场已经渐渐的见不到他们的踪影了。每个行业都有开端-发展-巅峰-消退的过程，行业的发展关键看看它已经到了哪个阶段，就pcb而言，个人认为已经到了巅峰的阶段，慢慢就要进入消退的阶段，主要是技术上的后继无力，当芯片的技术已经达到纳米级的时候，pcb技术还停留在微米级，这两者的差距已经决定了芯片技术必然代替传统的pcb生产技术，CPU的生产已经可以实现N核了，可以预见，未来实现不同功能模块之间的连接将不在依靠pcb了，直接在一个封装里面把不同功能的“核”放进去进行直接连通。来实现高密度互联，随着接口技术的发展，直接从芯片边缘生产出连接接口也将不是难题，包括光和电的信号将直接通过IC边缘的接口直接和芯片内部实现互联，这样处理的优点大家都能想到，到那时，不能说没有pcb的市场，只是高端的领域已经不需要pcb了。pcb的需求面积也就大大的减少。至于时间，我认为不会太长了，举个不是很恰当的例子吧，10年前，我刚配第一台电脑时，当时主流电脑的参数，还远远不及于现在一台智能手机的参数，当时电脑使用的pcb光主板的面积就不小了，而现在智能手机的主板，也就相当于当时显卡的面积的N分之一。

作者: stupid 时间: 2012-11-27 08:46

lmx 发表于 2012-11-26 23:08 7 g g7 {' t# V4 R2 w7 [5 j
手机出现后，call机挂了，VCD出现后，录像带挂了，DVD出现后，VCD又挂了，数码相机出现后、传统的菲林相机挂 ...

萱哥，电子枪是啥？现在这么有空？

作者: yujishen1211 时间: 2012-11-27 09:48
应该说的就是老式显示器的电子枪吧，说到这总让人想起，当初初中物理实验用的老式示波器！

作者: 风刃 时间: 2012-12-14 10:11
现在搞PCB设计的人很多，如果PCB会衰退，肯定是先淘汰一大批人吧。

作者: tanglj86 时间: 2012-12-20 09:32
ddddddddddddddddddddddddd

作者: tim207 时间: 2012-12-20 17:15

lmx 发表于 2012-11-26 23:08
2 g9 }5 S* k5 ?( ]. K手机出现后，call机挂了，VCD出现后，录像带挂了，DVD出现后，VCD又挂了，数码相机出现后、传统的菲林相机挂 ...

我觉得PCB设计还是需要的，只是设计单位由现在的mil变为nm而已，唯一不同的是我们以后无法用肉眼看到实实在在的物体，只能通过高倍显微镜而已。。
个人愚见。。

作者: 李泽尚 时间: 2012-12-21 08:42

tim207 发表于 2012-12-20 17:15 : D( x7 x* K' T; L" {
我觉得PCB设计还是需要的，只是设计单位由现在的mil变为nm而已，唯一不同的是我们以后无法用肉眼看到实实 ...

同意你和67楼的看法，只是觉得说的时间上会有一个上浮，如果真只有10年的话我们就苦逼了~~~

作者: lmx 时间: 2012-12-26 21:25
新技术的出现不会是一朝一夕的，都是需要行业里面很多人付出艰辛的汗水来推动，另外新技术的出现也不应该是带来绝望，应该是行业新的希望呀。没有新技术才真的是绝望。

作者: covigs 时间: 2013-1-5 13:51
中国搞PCB设计前途大么

作者: xibiandeyu 时间: 2013-4-8 16:00
我一开始的想法就是：PCB Layout，3年将其做到精通，然后就转去做硬件。事实上到目前为止，做了快4年了，发现自己离把PCB Layout玩转还有好远的距离。个人看法会有所不同吧，我觉得就Layou而言也是可深可浅，想要做到极致，几年时间是远远不够的。

作者: WALL-E 时间: 2013-5-13 19:36

作者: jamesytl 时间: 2014-11-20 10:01
水到渠成

作者: rroyye 时间: 2014-11-29 13:34
再过一个世纪PCB会不会消失？？？

作者: WYL_GW 时间: 2015-2-9 14:22
学习

作者: 迷雾森林 时间: 2015-2-9 17:52
消失是迟早的，但只会慢慢的消退。

作者: xuexukesina 时间: 2015-3-5 08:11
PCB在我有生之年应该不会消失吧

作者: stupid 时间: 2015-3-12 11:05
本帖最后由 stupid 于 2015-3-12 11:08 编辑

Apple Watch华丽的外表和价格令人震颤，而在半导体技术方面，它引领了SiP系统级封装的新潮，将应用处理器、内存、存储、支持处理器、传感器等等都整合到了单一封装内，不再需要传统的PCB电路板，自然可以大大缩小体积、简化系统。
来自台湾供应链的最新消息称，苹果非常看好SiP，今年底的iPhone 6S、明年的iPhone 7都会朝着这个方向发展。
据称，iPhone 6S会大幅缩减PCB的使用量，一半以上芯片元件都会做到SiP模块里，而到了iPhone 7，那将是苹果第一款全机采用SiP的手机。
这意味着，iPhone 7一方面可以做得更加轻薄，另一方面会有更多的空间容纳其他功能模块，比如说更强大的摄像头、扬声器，以及电池。
Apple Watch SiP封装订单交给了日月光，iPhone 6S/7也有望继续给予这家台湾封装大厂。
日月光方面对此传闻拒绝发表评论，但该公司的SiP生产线已经建立起了电路板、芯片、模组、系统等完整的生态系统。
另外，消息称A9之后的处理器将采用整合型扇出晶圆级封装(InFO-WLP)，而这正是台积电在16nm工艺上的一项新技术，是否意味着未来台积电将重新夺回苹果处理器的代工大单？
iPhone7概念设计出炉美国专利商标局今天公布了一项苹果提交的新专利，这项新专利直接命名为“Flexible Display”，也就是我们常说的柔性屏幕。然而今天的这一项却格外引人注目，因为它谈到了已经流传已久的“无边框”，以下是iPhone7超窄边框设计概念图。
这则新闻，再次提醒，在消费电子上，苹果正在革PCB的命，Apple watch已经成功实现了去PCB，全盘SiP化。而iPhone 7将会成为第一个全面SiP化的手机，期待。

作者: 苏鲁锭 时间: 2015-3-12 17:22
PCB载体的未来和PCB设计者的未来应当分开吧。

作者: stupid 时间: 2015-3-13 10:43

苏鲁锭发表于 2015-3-12 17:22
0 p4 r9 H, G0 @9 j9 t) {5 JPCB载体的未来和PCB设计者的未来应当分开吧。

皮之不存,毛将焉附?
如果全SiP时代来临,要么你转往封装级设计,要么转行做更有前途的事. 虽然封装级Layout设计和PCB大同小异,但很难想象一个不懂封装工艺的人能做好封装设计.

作者: chouqiu 时间: 2015-3-16 16:46
我觉得现在我们担心PCB 会不会消亡不重要，最起码在我们应该是看不到了，就算不PCB一直存在，作为一个layout，年纪上限是多少总不可能做到60 岁把。

作者: tim207 时间: 2015-7-2 17:11

chouqiu 发表于 2015-3-16 16:463 S- t1 j# n# l( v4 q& R) N
我觉得现在我们担心PCB 会不会消亡不重要，最起码在我们应该是看不到了，就算不PCB一直存在，作为一个layou ...

我严重同意你的观点，相对科技进步带来的革命，年纪的革命可能更要命。

作者: tangryshe 时间: 2015-7-24 09:27
值得一思

作者: lololo565 时间: 2016-5-20 16:34
写的不错啊

作者: hootasp 时间: 2016-5-21 21:59
学习了

作者: 不期而遇 时间: 2016-8-1 16:20
一个工种的消失是因为出现了更好的解决方案

作者: cangcang2 时间: 2017-1-5 08:53
技术的历史虽然不久源，但同样引人入胜

作者: 南飘郎 时间: 2017-3-23 10:59
未来是肯定有的，

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